The Week Ahead — 23 May 2022
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The SPX was down 4%, WTI was up 2.8%, and the 10-year yield was down 2.9%. Intraday vol has been an issue all week. What’s going thru an institutional trader’s mind in this market? Sam Rines explains.
On the commodities market, wheat was down 6% this week. Corn ended this week down about 1%. We’ll help you understand ag and fertilizer markets with Tracy Shuchart.
The dollar (DXY) is down a bit this week, about half a percent. Are global central bankers worried about a rising dollar and is there anything they can do about it? Albert Marko gives his insights on this.
Key themes:
1. How are institutions trading the intraday vol?
2. Ags and fertilizer: Demand Destruction vs Supply Shortages
3. $USD 💪 — 🙂 or ☹️
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This is the 19th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.
Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Transcript
TN: Hi everyone, and welcome to The Week Ahead. I’m Tony Nash, joined as always by Sam Rines,
Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart. Before we get into it, please, please like and subscribe. Please like and subscribe.
Also, we just started our new CI Futures promo. You get your first three months free. Get global markets, currencies commodities economics with CI Futures. Check it out at completeintel.com/2022Promo
So guys, this week S&P was down 4%. So I think some people are relieved it wasn’t down more. WTI was up almost 3% and the 10-year yield was down 2.9%. So I think it was a little more tame, at least by the end of the week than some people thought it might be, which probably not helpful to everybody, but I think it helped people a little bit, just kind of get a grip on things.
So our key themes this week, first, how are institutions trading this market and more specifically kind of Intraday Vol?
For AGS and Fertilizer. Is it demand destruction or supply shortages or both? How are those playing out?
And for the US dollar strength? Are global central banks happy about it or sad about it?
So today for our first segment, Sam, if you can help us understand this. Intraday vol has been an issue all week and for the past couple of weeks. What’s going through an institutional traders mind in this market We’ve got a tweet and there was a great thread from Kris Sidial. I definitely recommend reading it. So can you walk us through that a little bit, Sam, what they’re thinking about and what institutional traders are doing?
SR: Sure. I would say what they’re thinking about is not losing money, particularly after you had the target earnings, Walmart earnings. There were some landmines out there in individual retail land. That brought up some call it concerns about the consumer. It brought volatility into places you hadn’t really seen volatility recently. So staples began to really get a little more volatile. In particular, they were more volatile than the S&P500 for the back half of the week. So you began to see call it the volatility spread on underlying issuer basis, but not necessarily really spiking at the headline index level.
TN: So traders are trying to keep it flat, right?
SR: They’re keeping their risk very tight. There’s quite a bit of blood in the streets, so to speak, particularly those trading rates and individual equity names. So yeah, I would say it didn’t look like it was that volatile, but the intraday vol was incredible and it took a lot of the risk out of the system. It’s worth noting that a lot of the risk managers out there aren’t looking at day to day vol. They’re looking at Intraday Vols, PNLs. So you’re likely to get a shoulder tap Intraday if you’re playing these markets with too much leverage.
TN: You tap out at like 2:00 PM or something because of your positions? Is that what happens?
SR: Or you just have to unwind one that you like. Right. If you put on a S&P future trade early in the morning and you get 100 point move Intraday in the S&P, you’re going to get blown out of that position pretty quickly. Right. You have to have really tight stop loss limits. That’s it.
TN: Albert, what are you seeing?
AM: Well, the Fed has done a marvelous job of erasing excess wealth out there, excess money. Not just from retail. Retail is dead in the water right now. But even institutional wise, a lot of funds just been obliterated for the past month and a half now? The problem becomes liquidity. And where is it? I’m looking at the order book on the e-minis, and it’s just there’s nothing there. There’s nothing on the buy side,
nothing on the… Nothing. So these massive 100 point moves, I mean, of course, we’ve never seen anything like this, but if you look at the problem with liquidity there, it makes perfect sense.
TN: So, Albert, from a hedge fund world perspective, do you think we’re going to see some hedge funds cleaned out? Obviously, Melvin, we know that story. But are we going to see some issues there with some funds?
AM: Without question, you’ll see a lot of them unwinding by the end of the year. I know a few personally that have closed up shop or in the process of closing up shop. And I can’t imagine there’s at least 25% more that’s out there that are in some serious trouble. I mean, redemptions will start taking off clients that were sold, big tech names in a zero rate economy, they’re gonna be calling every single day what’s
going on for returns, and there’s none to be found right now.
TN: Yeah.It’s tough to get things out right now. Okay, good. Thanks for that. Let’s move on to our second topic.
Tracy, wheat was down 6% this week. Corn ended down about 1%. We got an interesting viewer question from Thomas Sieckmann, who’s a regular viewer. Can you help us understand AG and fertilizer markets. Thomas is saying, “love to hearyour thoughts on AG commodities. Demand destruction versus supply shortages, fertilizer prices and shortages, drought, lots of cross currents.” Can you help us understand kind of those markets a bit better?
TS: Sure. Well, first, I don’t think you’re going to see demand destruction even at higher prices,
because people need to eat. Right.
TN: Eating is good. Yeah, right. We can agree on that.
TS: The thing is what I think we’re going to see a structural shift in the market, whereas you’re going to see different crops being produced over other crops. In other words, if we look at, say, wheat, for example, what’s happening right now is that wheat crops are being produced more because it’s easier to do, less energy intensive, and that’s going to make a problem on the corn market. Not necessarily in the United States. I would single out the United States as it is kind of a different market altogether?
But if we look at the global markets, where I think this is headed. We’re going to see shortages in areas where you didn’t think so. Right.
We’re all scared about wheat because of obviously Ukraine and Russia and then being major producers, et cetera. But that is going to, in turn, affect the corn market, global production and what those crops are, what crops are being produced globally, if that makes sense. I think that’s what we need to be on a lookout for.
And things like rough rice. Rice. Rice is going to, because nobody wants to put wheat and corn into, say, animal food anymore. Right. Rice is much cheaper. So I would look for rice to go much higher because
they’re going to use that to replace something like animal feed.
TN: Interesting. Okay.
So we’ve seen political instability in Sri Lanka, especially over the past couple of weeks, and part of that is just terrible government. Part of that is weak currency and food affordability. How far do you think this goes? Does it get extended to a lot of other countries, or is there a few other countries that this gets exposed to? Both you and maybe Albert, if you guys can both jump in on this.
TS: Yes, I think it extends. We’re already seeing that name around. Right. We’re already seeing protests in Iran, and I think that this is going to continue, especially in emerging markets. Right. So I think this is nothing new. I think we should expect more of this and be reminded of when we saw the Arab Spring. It all started because of food. Right. So that’s something that we need to pay attention to, in my opinion.
AM: Yeah, I agree with Tracy. Some of the emerging markets are going to be the most hardest hit. It’s funny, because four or five months ago when my client and I were sitting there discussing what countries to look at to invest in, and one of the key components is which ones are stable in their food supply.
I mean, the United States. But France is actually quite stable. I think that they can actually make quite a play for the European Union’s leadership over Germany going forward, specifically because they’ve got enough food to sustain themselves.
As for the other countries…
TN: That’s a good point, Albert. I hadn’t thought about that. But that’s a really good point about France.
AM: Yeah. Well, I mean, they got their own food. They have a big agricultural industry, they’re
top in the world, and they’re self sufficient. And they have water from the Alps, too. So they have everything they need for themselves. So they’re pretty isolated from this.
But you look at Spain, they’re in trouble. North Africa, they’re in significant trouble. Sri Lanka won’t be the first looking for at least a dozen more instances of that happening around the world.
TN: So we have a summer of new government.
TS: I’m looking towards Brazil and Argentina, even though everybody kind of hates those markets right now, is if we look at their agriculture? Their agriculture is robust. And so I think that in the end, that will serve them from an investment standpoint if you’re looking to invest in.
AM: But the only problem with Argentina is so I mean, their government is just absolutely atrocious. And then the Brazilian. High risk. And Brazilians have a big election coming up, and that’s going to be extremely contentious. So I would stay away from those two until after those elections happen and whatnot.
But yeah, I mean, Brazil, they have fertilizer, they have fruits, they have sugar cane, a lot
of chicken, a lot of soybeans, a lot of meat.
TN: Okay, perfect. Let’s move on to the next topic. Albert, we got a question from Gary
Haubold, who’s a regular viewer. He’s talking about the dollar and how central banks. There’s gossip that central banks are getting nervous about a strong dollar. So dollars up or down, sorry, a little bit this week, but how worried are global central banks about the dollar?
Of course, you have, say, the North African or Brazilian or other kind of fairly shaky monetary markets. But if you look to, say, European or developed Asia or some of those other markets, how worried are those central bankers about a strong dollar?
AM: Well, I just want to isolate this between just the United States and Europe right now, because that’s only really what matters to the market back in the United States. A strong dollar for the Europeans is not good. It’s just absolutely not good. It would be good if the Euro was falling. They had exports to send to China, but they don’t have that anymore. So now they have dollar liabilities that are getting out of control. And I think that the Europeans, I’ve heard whispers inside the Fed and treasury that they’re worried about a European financial crisis. And it makes perfect sense. If they want to get the markets down, blow up Europe, that’s the best way to do it.
TN: But I thought we’ve had a financial crisis in Europe since about 2012.
AM: Yes, but we have it every five or ten years because Europe is a welfare state. It’s a welfare state that lives on Fed swaps. Right. That’s all it is. And I don’t want to insult the Europeans on here, but let’s just get real here. Without Chinese exports, they’ve got nothing.
TN: Sam, what do you think about that?
SR: Yeah. If China doesn’t open up soon, it is going to be extremely problematic for Europe. That would be the saving grace in a lot of ways to Europe for a strong dollar. Other than that, there’s going to have to be some sort of interesting talk down to the dollar, either from treasury or some hawkish comments coming out of the ECB. And you’d begun to hear the ECB be a little bit more hawkish recently. If they really want the dollar to abate, they’re going to have to get more hawkish.
TN: Yes, for sure. And on your China point, I saw a story this week that the Shanghai Port was at about a 90% capacity at some point this week. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t know. But I saw it in a legitimate newspaper so let’s see how long that lasts.
TS: I was going to ask you, Tony. From a China perspective, how do you look at this opening? Do you think Shanghai is really opening like they say it is or is this hearsay or, can you give us a little bit of insight on kind of the China situation right now because that makes a huge difference in demand for energy and materials?
TN: Sure. Absolutely. So I sure want it to open because I want both China and the rest of the world to thrive but because of a lot of domestic considerations, COVID or monkey pox or whatever it is. I don’t know. They’re just lifting it slowly.
But we talked about this in detail on last week’s show but I really don’t think they’re going to open to any interesting degree until mid summer. Maybe later. I wish they would open tomorrow but they won’t. I think for a lot of reasons they’re kind of getting in their own way and I’ve said this many times China needs to be saved from China. It’s just such terrible management of the country and has been for 50 or more years
and they’re potentially going back into the great famine type of environment which I worry about a lot and that would be detrimental to everybody around the world.
TS: That makes sense.
TN: So on that happy note, thanks so much for taking time for the show, guys. Really appreciate that. Have a great week ahead. Thank you very much.
This Week Ahead is originally published at https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/the-week-ahead-23-may-2022.
